Weather Temperature NO Betting
Bets the NO side of overpriced Polymarket temperature markets using live METAR observations and Gaussian probability models.
Developed by BallesJr, this automated paper-trading bot targets Polymarket temperature markets where the YES side is overpriced. It pulls live weather observations from METAR stations and forecasts from Open-Meteo, then calculates the probability of a given temperature event using a Gaussian model. If the market price implies a higher probability than the model's estimate, the bot bets the NO side. Entry is triggered when the mispricing exceeds a calibrated threshold; exit occurs at market resolution or when the price reverts. The strategy is conservative (paper-trading only) and designed to exploit systematic overpricing of extreme temperature outcomes.