Weather NO-Side Betting
Automated paper-trading bot that bets the NO side of overpriced Polymarket temperature markets using METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts with a Gaussian model.
This strategy exploits systematic overpricing of YES shares in Polymarket temperature prediction markets. The bot collects live METAR (Meteorological Aerodrome Report) observations and Open-Meteo forecasts to estimate the true probability of specific temperature outcomes. It uses a Gaussian probability model to compare market-implied probabilities against its own calculated probabilities. When the model finds that YES shares are significantly overpriced (meaning market prices imply higher probability than the model predicts), it places NO bets. The edge comes from retail traders overestimating the likelihood of extreme or specific temperature thresholds. Currently in paper-trading mode, it allows for strategy validation without capital risk.