Weather Market NO-side Overpricing Bot (Paper Trading)

This bot, written in Python, is a paper-trading implementation of a weather market arbitrage strategy. It identifies temperature markets on Polymarket where the YES price is overpriced and buys NO, expecting the price to revert to a fair value calculated from (1) live METAR (weather station) observations and (2) Open-Meteo forecasts, combined through a Gaussian probability model.

Entry: When the market price for YES is above the model's probability + a threshold. Exit: When the market re-prices to fair value, or at the market resolution. It uses paper trading (simulated) rather than real money, which is a key caveat.

The repository has 5 stars, 0 forks, and is ~6 MB. It's a well-defined strategy with a clear edge source (information disparity between market price and public weather data). The user 'BallesJr' is in the existing wallets list and also has a separate repo on the same topic.

Risks: Paper trading results are not indicative of live trading performance. Slippage, latency, and liquidity are not captured in paper trading. The model's edge might be small and eroded by fees if the market is efficient. It is a known strategy (similar to 'weather-market-no-side-overpricing' in existing list) but this is a new repo for it.