Weather Market NO Side Fade (METAR + Gaussian)
Weatherscore 7found Jul 13, 2026github.com/BallesJr/polymarket-weather-edge
Automated paper-trading bot that bets the NO side of overpriced Polymarket temperature markets using live METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts with a Gaussian probability model.
This bot identifies temperature markets on Polymarket where the implied probability significantly exceeds a modeled NO probability derived from Gaussian distributions over METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts. It enters a NO position when the market price is overpriced relative to the model. Exit is at expiration or when the market corrects. Only paper-traded so far. Implementation uses Python, METAR feed, and Open-Meteo API. Risk: model misspecification, extreme weather events, market liquidity.