Weather-edge delta harvesting
Bot exploits weather forecast model deviations to trade temperature and precipitation outcome markets before pricing adjusts.
The bot monitors proprietary NWS and ECMWF forecast updates against consensus predictions embedded in Polymarket weather markets. When a forecast revision exceeds a threshold (e.g., 2°C or 0.5 inches) and market odds haven't fully reacted, it enters a position favoring the revised forecast. Entry occurs within 5 minutes of official model publication; exit is either at 90% confidence or 48 hours before event, whichever comes first. The bot showed strong daily performance on 2026-08-17, likely profiting from a sudden cold front that caught market makers off guard. Implementation requires integration with weather APIs, real-time market data feeds, and a fast execution layer; repo is private but discussed in trading circles.