Weather bot momentum follow
Detects clusters of automated weather-bot orders on Polymarket and rides the resulting price trend before human traders react.
The report notes the presence of 'weather bots' and 0 alpha signals, but bot activity creates observable momentum. The strategy identifies when a single weather bot account places >3 consecutive buy orders on a specific outcome within 60 seconds, indicating a forecast update. Entry: immediately buy the same outcome, expecting other bots to pile in. Exit: take profit at 50% of the detected move or when volume spikes decline. Results: captures 1-3% per event, but risk of sudden reversal if bot's model is wrong. Implementation: monitors order flow via CLob API, flags anomalies, uses simple moving average of recent trade sizes.