Polymarket Weather Temperature Arbitrage

This strategy targets prediction markets for daily high/low temperatures. The bot scrapes live METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts to compute a Gaussian probability distribution for the actual temperature. It then identifies markets where the implied probability of a specific temperature range is significantly higher than the model's computed probability, presenting a favorable 'NO' bet. The entry is triggered when the model estimates a >5% edge on the NO side; exit is automatic at market resolution or when the edge dissipates. Paper-trading results show consistent profitability on overpriced temperature markets. Implementation uses Python, real-time weather APIs, and Polymarket's CLOB API for order placement.