Polymarket Weather NO-Side Gaussian Model

This strategy identifies overpriced 'YES' options on Polymarket temperature markets and systematically bets the 'NO' side. The bot uses two primary data sources: live METAR (Meteorological Aerodrome Report) observations from airports near the market's location, and Open-Meteo for high-resolution forecast data. It then applies a Gaussian probability model to estimate the true probability of the temperature outcome. When the market's implied probability (price) is significantly higher than the model's fair probability, it places a paper trade on the NO side. This is a pure statistical edge driven by the crowd's tendency to overestimate the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures. The bot is in paper-trading mode, so verified results are not yet available. Risks include model misspecification, data errors from METAR stations, and the possibility that the market is pricing in information the model doesn't capture.