Polymarket Weather NO-Bias Betting (BallesJr)
Paper-trading bot that bets NO on overpriced Polymarket temperature markets using METAR and forecast data.
This bot, by BallesJr, paper-trades the NO side of temperature markets. It uses live METAR data and Open-Meteo forecasts to build a Gaussian probability model. The core edge is the hypothesis that the market consistently overprices the YES outcome on these markets, making NO bets profitable. The bot is an implementation and backtest of this hypothesis. It was created in April 2026 and is actively updated. While a similar strategy exists in the list ('polymarket-weather-edge-metar-paper-trading'), this is the specific repository for the newer 'BallesJr' implementation. The 'paper-trading' nature means no real money has been risked, so the edge is unproven.