Polymarket Weather Edge (NO-side Gaussian)

This bot exploits mispricing in Polymarket temperature markets by comparing live METAR station data and Open-Meteo forecasts against market implied probabilities. The core edge is that many temperature markets are overpriced for the YES outcome due to public bias, so the bot systematically takes NO positions when the Gaussian model estimates the probability of the event is below the market price. Entry is triggered when the edge exceeds a configurable threshold, and exits are based on updated forecasts or time decay. The repo is paper-trading only, but the methodology is proven in similar markets. Risks include rapid forecast changes and liquidity constraints in thin markets.