Polymarket Weather Edge (NO Gaussian)
Weatherscore 6found Sep 5, 2026github.com/BallesJr/polymarket-weather-edge
Bets NO on overpriced Polymarket temperature markets using METAR and Open-Meteo forecasts with a Gaussian model.
An automated paper-trading bot that targets Polymarket temperature markets, betting the NO side when the YES price is too high based on a Gaussian probability model. It leverages live METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts to estimate the probability of temperature exceeding a threshold. The bot has a dedicated repository with 5 stars and no forks. It follows a similar concept to existing weather strategies but with a unique implementation. While only paper trading so far, the model may reveal edge in temperature forecasts. The bot runs automated and could be adapted for live trading with caution.