Polymarket Post Count Market Bot

Polymarket runs recurring count markets such as 'How many posts will Elon Musk make this week?' These markets are resolved by a defined data source (xtracker.polymarket.com), which makes the underlying process observable in real time. The edge comes from the fact that posting behavior is highly autocorrelated within a week but mean-reverting toward a personal baseline, and the market often overreacts to a single viral day.

CCronos/postbot implements this by scraping xtracker.polymarket.com for the current count, extrapolating pace to the market's resolution time, and comparing the projected count distribution to the option prices. When the market overprices a high bucket after a burst of activity, the bot fades it; when a low bucket is overpriced late in the week despite a high count already locked in, the bot buys the high bucket for near-certain payoff.

Entry timing matters: the highest-edge window is the last 24–36 hours of the market, when the remaining count is nearly deterministic from pace plus known sleeping hours. Early-week entries are much noisier and should be sized small. Exits are usually hold-to-resolution given the binary structure.

Risks include: xtracker downtime or definitional changes, deletion/edited posts not counted by the tracker, and platform outages that freeze a user's posting. Also, these markets are relatively small so position sizes are capped by available liquidity.

The repo is small (~158 KB) and authored by a low-profile account (0 stars), so treat the code as a reference implementation rather than audited production software. Verify the tracker parsing logic against current page structure before deploying.