PolymarketPostCountBot

This strategy targets Polymarket's niche 'post count' markets, which ask how many times a public figure (e.g., Elon Musk, Donald Trump) will post on X/Twitter within a given period. The CCronos/postbot repository implements a Python bot that scrapes xtracker.polymarket.com — Polymarket's own tracker for these markets — to obtain real-time post counts. By monitoring the count velocity, the bot can estimate whether the market's implied probability is mispriced and place trades accordingly.

The edge is speed and information: xtracker.polymarket.com provides a live count that may not be immediately reflected in the market price. If, for example, Elon Musk is posting at a faster rate than the market implies, the YES contract for a high count threshold may be underpriced, allowing the bot to buy before the market adjusts. Conversely, if posting slows, the bot can bet NO on high thresholds. The bot likely uses simple threshold logic: if projected final count (based on current rate and time remaining) exceeds the market's threshold, buy YES; otherwise buy NO or stay flat.

Implementation: Python, 172KB, created in August 2026 and updated September 15, 2026. It is a lightweight bot focused on a specific market type. It likely polls the xtracker endpoint at regular intervals and may execute trades via Polymarket's API, though the description does not specify live execution. The strategy is highly specific and depends on the continued existence of these post-count markets.

Risks: Scraping xtracker may violate terms of service or be rate-limited. Posting behavior is volatile and can change abruptly (e.g., a viral event causes a posting spree). Market liquidity in these niche markets may be low, leading to wide spreads. The bot has 0 stars and 0 forks, so no community validation.

Verified results: No public PnL data. The strategy is novel and exploits a specific market inefficiency, but without live execution details or backtest results, its profitability is unverified.