NO-Side Price Reversion on Climatic Extremes

This strategy focuses on Polymarket's daily temperature or precipitation lines, which often exhibit sharp price moves toward YES when a single forecast run predicts an extreme (e.g., 100°F). The bot detects these spikes by comparing the last 10 forecast iterations; if the extreme appears in fewer than 3 runs and the consensus remains moderate, it buys NO contracts at inflated NO prices (since YES is overbought). Entry is triggered when the NO price drops below 40% while the statistical probability of the event (based on ensemble models) is above 55%. Exit is typically after 3-6 hours as forecast runs converge or when the market rebalances to within 10% of the model's probability. Results from the report's 5 monitored wallets show a cumulative 4.2% edge per trade, though with occasional losses when a cold front unexpectedly holds. Implementation involves scraping forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, running a rolling variance filter, and placing market orders on the NO side during high-volume windows. The bot uses a minimum size of $50 per trade to overcome fees.