News-Driven Arbitrage on Polymarket

How It Works The repo (benjee-inc/polymarket-arb-dashboard) describes a 'Polymarket news arbitrage bot dashboard,' indicating the strategy monitors news feeds and compares new information content to current Polymarket market prices. When a news event materially changes the true probability of a market's resolution but the Polymarket price has not yet updated, the bot enters a position in the direction the price should move.

Entry Conditions Entry is triggered by a news event detected via the bot's feed monitoring. The bot presumably classifies news relevance and directional impact, then compares the implied probability shift to the current market price. A minimum edge threshold likely governs execution.

Exit / Resolution Exit likely occurs either at resolution or when the market price converges to the news-adjusted probability, capturing the repricing move.

Verified Results No quantitative results are described. The dashboard framing suggests this is a live or near-live system, but no P&L metrics are provided.

Implementation Notes & Risks News arbitrage on prediction markets is a well-known strategy but highly competitive. Key risks: (1) natural language processing errors misclassifying news relevance or direction; (2) news already priced in by faster participants; (3) fake or misleading news causing incorrect position entries; (4) market resolution risk if news is later contradicted. The absence of any technical detail beyond 'news arbitrage bot' significantly limits confidence in the strategy's implementation quality.