News Arbitrage (Polymarket Price vs. Breaking News)

How It Works The news arbitrage dashboard (polymarket-arb-dashboard) monitors news feeds and compares real-world event developments against current Polymarket prices. When a significant news event occurs that should materially shift the probability of a market outcome, but Polymarket prices have not yet updated to reflect it, the bot takes a position in the direction of the new information before the market reprices.

Entry / Exit Conditions Entry is triggered by detection of a qualifying news event paired with a Polymarket price that has not yet incorporated the information. The speed advantage is the edge — the bot must act faster than other market participants who are also monitoring news. Exit may occur at the new equilibrium price (taking profit on the reprice) or at market resolution.

Verification No verified results available. News arbitrage in prediction markets is a well-documented strategy concept, and the dashboard framing suggests this is more of a decision-support tool than a fully automated execution system.

Implementation Notes The 'dashboard' description suggests a semi-automated or manual-assisted workflow where the operator monitors news signals and executes manually or semi-automatically. Full automation would require NLP-based news classification and extremely low-latency execution infrastructure.

Risks News arbitrage is highly competitive — professional traders and automated systems monitor the same feeds. False positives (news that seems relevant but does not affect resolution) can cause losses. Polymarket's liquidity may limit position size at favorable prices. The information advantage window is typically very short (seconds to minutes).