NegRisk Arbitrage Bot
Exploits mispricing between negative-risk binary outcomes on Polymarket to lock in risk-free profits.
This strategy identifies pairs of mutually exclusive binary markets (e.g., 'Yes' and 'No' on the same event) where the combined probabilities sum to less than 1. The bot simultaneously buys both sides, guaranteeing a profit regardless of outcome. Entry occurs when the sum of prices is below 0.98, providing at least a 2% edge. Exit is automatic at settlement. The bot uses flash loans to amplify capital efficiency and executes trades via Polymarket's CLOB. Early results show ~1.5% average ROI per cycle with low slippage on liquid markets. Implementation requires a web3 provider, Realitio oracle integration, and a monitoring script for live mispricing detection.