Multi-Outcome NegRisk Arbitrage
Scans and executes negative-risk arbitrage opportunities across multi-outcome Polymarket contracts using a production-grade scanner.
This strategy identifies mispriced groups of mutually exclusive outcomes (e.g., 'Winner A', 'Winner B', 'Tie') where the sum of their prices is less than 100 cents. It buys all outcomes to guarantee a profit on settlement. Entry occurs when the total cost < $0.98 (configurable threshold); exit is automatic at event resolution. The repo matthewnyc2/arbitrage provides a Python asyncio scanner with paper-trading and live browser demo. It includes 60+ tests and handles complex NegRisk models. Profit per trade is small but with high frequency. Requires careful tracking of on-chain settlement and outcome verification.