Hedged Two-Sided Spread Making on 15-Minute Crypto Markets

This strategy acts as a market maker on Polymarket's short-duration crypto up/down markets by posting limit orders on both the YES and NO sides of a market at prices that ensure the combined entry cost stays below a configurable threshold. When both sides fill, the position is hedged and the trader captures the spread between the two prices. The TypeScript implementation focuses on disciplined cost control as the primary risk management tool.

Entry conditions require that the sum of the best available YES and NO prices is sufficiently below 1.0 (i.e., the market exhibits a wide enough spread to be profitable after fees). Position sizes are constrained to keep total risk capital below a set limit. The 15-minute resolution window provides a hard, near-term exit that prevents positions from becoming long-duration bets.

This is structurally similar to traditional market making but adapted to binary prediction markets. The main edge is inventory turnover — collecting the spread many times per day across many markets. No verified results are disclosed.

Key risks include adverse selection (the market moving decisively in one direction before the other leg fills, leaving an unhedged directional position), high competition from other market makers compressing spreads to near-zero, fee drag eroding thin margins, and the challenge of managing inventory across many simultaneously open positions in fast-moving crypto markets.