Flash Crash Strategy on 15-Minute Polymarket Markets

How It Works Very short-duration Polymarket markets (resolving in 15-minute windows) are susceptible to flash crashes — sudden price drops caused by large sell orders hitting thin liquidity rather than genuine probability updates. The strategy monitors live orderbook depth in these markets and enters counter-trend positions when prices dislocate beyond a threshold that is inconsistent with the remaining time to resolution and known information.

Entry/Exit Conditions Entry is triggered by a rapid adverse price move in a 15-minute market accompanied by thin opposing orderbook depth. The position is sized using risk controls built into the bot. Exit is at market resolution (given the short timeframe, holding to resolution is the primary exit) or at price recovery if reversion is fast. Gasless execution (likely via meta-transactions or a sponsored relay) minimizes friction cost which is critical given tight profit windows.

Verification No performance data is available. The TypeScript implementation with real-time data and gasless execution is a plausible production setup, but no backtesting results or live PnL are cited.

Implementation Notes Gasless execution is a meaningful implementation detail — standard on-chain transactions on Polygon have non-trivial latency and gas costs that can eliminate edge in flash events. TypeScript suggests a web-native stack potentially co-located with Polymarket's API infrastructure. The 15-minute market helper utilities indicate custom tooling for these specific short-duration instruments.

Risks Flash crashes in prediction markets may reflect genuine information (e.g., a real-time result becoming known) rather than liquidity gaps, resulting in adverse selection. 15-minute resolution windows give almost no time to recover from a wrong entry. Gasless execution infrastructure introduces smart contract or relay risk. This strategy requires extremely low latency to be viable.