Crypto Price Threshold Distance-to-Trigger Screening

How It Works The Auspex tool calculates the current distance between a live crypto asset price (e.g., BTC spot) and the resolution threshold of a Polymarket binary market (e.g., 'Will BTC exceed $X by date Y'). This distance metric, combined with time-to-resolution and volatility context, generates a resolution-confidence score that quantifies how likely the market is to resolve YES or NO. The frontend surfaces markets where the confidence score diverges from the market-implied probability.

Entry Conditions Trigger alerts fire when the distance-to-trigger and confidence score suggest the market is mispriced relative to the live resolution source. A trader would enter the side (YES or NO) that the model favors. The 0% fee structure of the tool's interface reduces friction for frequent small-edge trades.

Exit Conditions Not explicitly documented. Given the crypto market context, early exit when distance-to-trigger collapses (price moves toward threshold) or expands significantly would be natural exit points. Resolution is the terminal exit.

Verified Results No PnL data reported. Zero stars and zero forks suggest this tool is very early-stage or privately used. The description is the most technically specific of the non-weather repos, which slightly elevates credibility.

Risks Crypto binary markets on Polymarket can be manipulated by large spot market moves, making confidence scores unstable near resolution. The confidence scoring methodology is not described in enough detail to assess calibration quality. Liquidity in individual crypto threshold markets may be insufficient to absorb meaningful position sizes.