Cross-Platform BTC/ETH Arbitrage (Polymarket vs. Other Venues)

How It Works The strategy compares implied probabilities for BTC and ETH price outcomes on Polymarket against prices available on other venues (spot, futures, or other prediction markets). When a statistically meaningful gap exists, the bot takes the cheap side on Polymarket and hedges on the other venue, locking in a risk-free or near-risk-free spread.

Entry / Exit Conditions Entry fires when the price gap exceeds transaction costs plus a minimum profit threshold. Exit occurs when the spread collapses (both legs converge) or at market resolution, whichever comes first. The dashboard (IanSmith2005/polymarket-dashboard) implies live monitoring of this spread in real time.

Verification No quantified results are disclosed. The repo has zero stars and forks, suggesting personal or prototype use.

Implementation Notes Requires simultaneous connectivity to Polymarket's CLOB API and at least one external crypto exchange API. Latency management is critical; both legs must execute near-simultaneously to avoid leg risk. USDC settlement on Polymarket must be reconciled against the hedge venue's settlement currency.

Risks Leg risk if one side fails to fill, settlement timing mismatch between Polymarket resolution and futures expiry, liquidity gaps on Polymarket's order book, and regulatory uncertainty around cross-platform derivatives trading.