BTC/ETH Price Arbitrage Across Prediction Market Venues

This strategy targets BTC and ETH 15-minute up/down prediction markets that exist on both Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously. When the implied probability for the same directional outcome diverges between the two platforms, the bot buys the underpriced side on one venue and sells (or buys the opposite side) on the other, locking in a spread. The TypeScript implementation suggests a focus on execution speed and reliability.

Entry conditions require a price gap between platforms that exceeds the combined fee and gas cost of executing on both sides. The 15-minute resolution window provides a natural, time-bounded exit with no need for active position management post-entry. The bot continuously monitors both platforms' order books via API and acts when the threshold is crossed.

No verified P&L results are disclosed. The cross-venue nature of this arb is structurally sound — two regulated/semi-regulated venues pricing the same underlying event should converge. The short 15-minute resolution window limits overnight or multi-day risk exposure significantly.

Key risks include execution timing mismatch (one leg fills while the other moves), API downtime or rate limiting on either platform, differences in settlement methodology between Polymarket and Kalshi that could cause apparently identical markets to resolve differently, and capital inefficiency from needing to hold funds on two separate platforms simultaneously.