BTC/ETH Cross-Asset Arbitrage on Polymarket

How It Works The IanSmith2005/polymarket-dashboard repository describes a live dashboard specifically built for BTC/ETH arbitrage on Polymarket. Rather than cross-platform arbitrage, this appears to target intra-platform mispricings between correlated crypto asset markets — for example, when BTC and ETH directional markets imply inconsistent joint probabilities given their historically high correlation.

Entry / Exit Conditions Entry signals are likely generated when the dashboard flags a statistically anomalous divergence between BTC and ETH market prices relative to their historical co-movement. Exit at resolution or when the spread normalizes. Specific trigger thresholds are not documented in the repository description.

Verified Results No verified results are mentioned. The repository has 0 stars and 0 forks, indicating it is either very new or not widely validated. The dashboard framing suggests it is a monitoring/analytics tool rather than a fully automated execution system.

Implementation Notes The large repository size (32 MB) suggests a substantial frontend dashboard component. A practical implementation would require a pricing model for joint BTC/ETH probabilities (e.g., using historical correlation and a bivariate normal model) to identify when individual market prices are inconsistent with the joint distribution. Execution would still need to be manual or via a separate order-routing layer.

Risks - **Correlation breakdown**: BTC and ETH can decouple during idiosyncratic events (exchange hacks, ETF announcements for one asset), invalidating the correlation assumption. - **Resolution timing**: if markets resolve at slightly different times or use different price oracles, the correlation-based hedge may not fully offset. - **Low liquidity**: thin order books limit exploitable position sizes. - **No automation**: if execution is manual, speed to capture the opportunity may be insufficient.