BTC/ETH Chainlink Price Divergence Scalping with Liquidity Filters

How It Works The bot monitors Chainlink price feeds for BTC and ETH and compares the current price trajectory against Polymarket's implied probability that a price level will be reached by expiry. When the Chainlink price diverges meaningfully from what the market implies, the bot enters a position. A liquidity filter screens out markets with insufficient depth to execute without excessive slippage.

Entry Conditions Entry occurs when Chainlink oracle data suggests a directional move that is not yet reflected in Polymarket prices, combined with sufficient liquidity (as defined by the filter). The strategy specifically targets final-epoch opportunities — the period close to market expiry when time decay rapidly reprices binary outcomes and small price moves have outsized probability impacts.

Exit Conditions Positions are held through final epoch to resolution, exploiting the convexity of binary payoffs near expiry. Short-term scalping suggests some positions may be exited early if prices converge rapidly.

Verified Results No auditable results provided. The repo has 231 stars and 27 forks, indicating community interest, but popularity does not verify performance.

Implementation Notes & Risks Chainlink oracle data on Polygon is reliable but not instantaneous; latency between oracle updates and Polymarket price adjustments is the primary alpha source. Risks include oracle manipulation (unlikely but possible), final-epoch liquidity drying up, and the binary gamma risk of being near the threshold at expiry. The combination of liquidity filters and Kelly-style sizing (implied but not confirmed) suggests some risk management awareness.