BTC/SOL 15-Minute Price Prediction Arbitrage

The bot (kmjjjj/polymarket-arbitrage-bot-btc-sol-15m) focuses on binary 'up/down' prediction markets that resolve every 15 minutes based on BTC or SOL price movements. It analyzes order books for these short-duration markets, identifying price dislocations between the 'Yes' and 'No' tokens compared to the implied probability calculated from the current spot price and recent volatility. The strategy enters a position when the combined bid-ask spread offers an arbitrage opportunity (e.g., buying both sides for less than $1). Exit is automatic at market resolution. The Rust implementation provides low-latency order placement and monitoring of multiple markets simultaneously. Results from the repository indicate small but frequent profits with very short capital lockup. The bot handles gasless transactions on Polygon to minimize costs.