Eight New Bots, Four Worth Cloning, Zero Malware

Today's Headline

The most actionable item in today's scan is the cluster of four clone-worthy repositories: **Polymarket-Perpetual-Bot**, **polymarket-weather-edge**, **arbitrage**, and **venue-arb**. Each targets a distinct edge — edge detection and liquidity provisioning, statistical mispricing on temperature markets, NegRisk basket arbitrage, and Kalshi↔Polymarket cross-venue matching — and all but one ship with meaningful risk gating. No malware was confirmed across the eight new repos, but the security queue was not empty.

New Bots and Repositories

**Polymarket-Perpetual-Bot** is the strongest of the batch. It bundles edge detection, market making (liquidity provisioning), and cross-market arbitrage behind a paper-trading gate and explicit risk controls. The paper-trading-first design is the right default for anyone cloning it; treat the risk parameters as defaults to audit, not trust.

**polymarket-weather-edge** is a focused statistical play: a Gaussian model over METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts, used to sell the NO side of overpriced temperature outcomes. Weather markets are thin and resolution-criteria-sensitive, so validate the model against historical settlement data before sizing.

**arbitrage** implements NegRisk multi-outcome arbitrage — detecting when a full basket of outcome shares prices above $1 (or below) and locking the spread. This is the mechanical, well-understood edge in the set, but execution timing and fee drag determine real profitability.

**venue-arb** is research-grade: Kalshi↔Polymarket market matching on equivalent event contracts, spread detection, and read-only execution. Read-only means you'll need to wire in your own execution layer, but the matching logic is the valuable part.

**alphapipeline** is marked monitor, not clone. It does cross-venue arbitrage with slippage-aware execution (L2 VWAP plus DEX price comparison) and exposes itself to AI agents over the x402 MCP protocol. The agent-facing surface area is interesting but expands the trust boundary; watch it before deploying capital.

Security

No confirmed malware today, but three alerts merit attention. First, a **garbled-username Polymarket spam campaign** — treat any unsolicited links or "strategy" repos from obfuscated handles as hostile until proven otherwise. Second, **possible star farming on bennyjo/phil** — inflated star counts are a weak signal of quality and often precede low-effort or malicious payloads. Third, an **empty-description strategy lab with a 12MB payload** — an empty description plus a payload that size is a classic pattern for bundled binaries or obfuscated code; do not clone without static analysis.

Alpha Signals

Three research signals stand out. A new paper builds a framework for detecting arbitrage across logically related prediction-market contracts, proving that prices outside the convex hull of admissible payoff vectors admit arbitrage, and solving for optimal portfolios via integer programming. The authors recovered **1.9 million logical relations across 255,000+ contracts** using venue metadata and NLP on resolution criteria, then replayed full-depth Polymarket order books. This is directly applicable to the **arbitrage** and **venue-arb** repos above.

A second paper argues that identifying "smart money" via historical profit rankings is insufficient — simple profit rankings conflate skill with variance and survivorship. If you copy-trade, weight for consistency and sample size, not raw PnL.

A third paper examines decision-focused learning when forecasts are projected onto known bounds before use, finding the mismatch weakens loss identification — relevant if you're building bounded-forecast models for weather or range markets.

HN activity reinforces the regulatory backdrop: Spain has blocked Polymarket and Kalshi over licensing, and a viral thread on a "Nothing Ever Happens" bot that always buys NO on non-sports markets drew 471 points — a reminder that the naive NO-bias is now widely known and likely priced in.

Strategy Intelligence

Six new strategies were logged today, spanning edge detection, weather statistics, NegRisk basket arbitrage, and cross-venue matching. Zero new wallets were added to the tracker, so today's alpha is repo- and research-driven rather than flow-driven.

What to Watch

Audit **Polymarket-Perpetual-Bot**'s risk controls before paper-trading live. Validate **polymarket-weather-edge** against historical METAR settlements. Watch **alphapipeline**'s x402 MCP surface for trust-boundary issues. And treat the 12MB empty-description repo as hostile until statically analyzed — the campaign and star-farming alerts suggest the spam ecosystem is active this week.