Arb Bots Surge as Kalshi-Polymarket Spread Hunting Intensifies

GitHub Bot Landscape — 2026-07-01

Lead Finding: Kalshi-Polymarket Arbitrage Is Now a Crowded Trade

The single clearest signal from today's repository sweep is the sustained build-out of Kalshi-Polymarket cross-platform arbitrage tooling. Five repos directly target this spread: `samuel483/poly-kalshi-arb`, `lufegaga/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-trading-bot-python`, `Juanp2389/Kalshi-trade-bot`, `AlexGolodkrd/polymarket-radar`, and `kenfri13/polymarket-arbitrage-trading-bot`. The Juanp2389 bot specifically targets BTC 15-minute markets on both platforms — a narrow, high-frequency window that suggests the author is exploiting lag between Kalshi's and Polymarket's price feeds on short-duration crypto events. When multiple independent developers converge on the same instrument and timeframe, the implied edge in that spread is either well-documented or already shrinking. Operators active in BTC short-duration markets should monitor their fill rates and slippage carefully.

NegRisk Arbitrage: One Repo Worth Watching

`matthewnyc2/arbitrage` stands out for technical seriousness. The description references production-grade Python asyncio architecture, a paper-trading mode, and 60 passing tests — a level of engineering discipline rarely seen in public prediction market repos. The explicit focus on NegRisk multi-outcome arbitrage is significant: NegRisk markets, where a single umbrella event covers multiple mutually exclusive outcomes, can exhibit structural mispricing when individual leg probabilities fail to sum correctly. A well-built scanner running against these markets could be extracting real edge. Operators who manually trade multi-outcome political or sports markets should be aware this type of automated scanning is now in the public domain.

Weather Markets: A New Automated Front

`BallesJr/polymarket-weather-edge` describes a paper-trading bot that systematically fades the YES side of overpriced temperature markets using live METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts combined with a Gaussian probability model. A second weather-adjacent repo, `Cttdev7/BotTradingV2`, references a "weather agent" in its description. The emergence of two independent weather-focused tools in the same sweep suggests discretionary traders are leaving observable edges in temperature markets — likely by anchoring to round-number probabilities rather than calibrated meteorological data. If you are active in weather event markets, verify your pricing against Open-Meteo or equivalent sources before entering.

Copy Trading and Smart Money Tracking

`mahmoooud194/Polymarket-Copytrading-Bot` and `wezilushinga/poly-sdk` — which explicitly mentions "smart money analysis" — indicate continued development of on-chain position mirroring tools. Copy-trading infrastructure on Polymarket is not new, but the persistence of these repos being updated suggests active use. Operators with large disclosed positions should assume their trade history is being monitored and potentially replicated at scale.

Volume and Traction Signals

Two repos carry meaningful star and fork counts: `quipmnxailcrrgky/tradingbot` (98 stars, 60 forks) and `bit-nexusxtitmtdsuy/Polymarket_Bot` (32 stars, 17 forks). Both have been active since late March 2026 and were updated today. High fork counts on trading repos typically indicate active deployment rather than passive interest — treat these as live infrastructure, not experiments. The `King102681/polymarket-bot` repo is anomalous: zero stars and zero forks but a repository size of 5.02 GB, which is extremely large for a trading bot. This warrants caution; oversized repos of this type sometimes bundle pre-trained models, large datasets, or in rare cases, obfuscated payloads.

Security Note

Operators forking or running any public Polymarket bot repo should conduct standard key hygiene checks. Several repos in today's sweep provide wallet connection and API key configuration via environment files. Credential exfiltration through malicious dependencies remains the primary risk vector in open-source trading tooling. Audit `package.json` and `requirements.txt` dependencies before execution.

Bottom Line

Kalshi-Polymarket BTC short-duration spreads are under automated pressure from multiple tools. NegRisk multi-outcome markets have a technically sophisticated scanner in public circulation. Weather markets are being systematically faded with meteorological data. Adjust positioning and sizing in these areas accordingly.