lagisalpha

lagisalpha is a TypeScript project developed for a World Cup hackathon that quantifies the lead-lag relationship between prediction market odds on Polymarket and the vig-free lines provided by TxLINE. The core insight is that when Polymarket prices lag behind the true market-implied probability from TxLINE, the cheap side is temporarily underpriced. The bot sizes positions using the Kelly criterion to maximize long-term growth while managing risk. The codebase is structured around fetching real-time data from both sources, computing the lag, and executing take-profit orders that lock in the edge as the market converges. Code quality appears decent for a hackathon project: the TypeScript is clean, with modular functions for data fetching, signal generation, and execution. There are no dependencies on obscure packages, and the repository includes configuration files for environment variables. No malware indicators are present; the repo is small (2MB) with a single active commit history. This strategy is best suited for traders who understand microstructure inefficiencies and want to exploit slow price discovery during high-volume events like World Cup matches. The crypto-oracle approach is unique and avoids the crowded 5-minute arbitrage space. The final verdict is worth_cloning for research and adaptation, though live trading would require careful monitoring of TxLINE reliability and slippage.